Probability of Continued Employment: What It Means and How to Answer It
If you've been handed an employment verification form with a box labeled "probability of continued employment," you're probably wondering what you're supposed to write in it. If you're a landlord reading one of these forms, you're probably wondering how much the answer is actually worth.
This guide covers both sides: what the field means, how to answer it, and why this question produces some of the least reliable information on any verification form.
What "probability of continued employment" means
The phrase appears on employment verification forms used for rental applications, mortgage applications (including Fannie Mae's Form 1005), and some loan underwriting. It asks the employer to estimate whether the employee is likely to keep their job.
That's it. It is an opinion question directed at an HR representative or manager — not a factual record like hire date or salary.
How to answer it (for employers and HR)
If you're the employer filling out the form, keep the answer short, factual, and non-committal. Most HR departments use one of these standard answers:
- "Good" or "Likely" — the most common answer for an employee in good standing.
- "Employee is employed at will; we cannot predict future employment." — the answer most legal teams prefer, because it avoids making a promise the company can't keep.
- "No reason to believe employment will not continue." — a middle ground: positive but not a guarantee.
Many companies have a policy of never answering this question, because stating a high probability could create legal exposure if the employee is later laid off. If your company has such a policy, write "Company policy: unable to provide" — verifiers see this routinely and it does not count against the applicant.
If you're an applicant and your employer refuses to answer, don't panic. This is common. Provide alternative evidence of income stability instead: recent pay stubs, an offer letter, or a bank-based income report showing months of consistent deposits.
Why landlords shouldn't lean on this field
Here is the uncomfortable truth about "probability of continued employment" as a screening signal:
- It's an unverifiable opinion. The HR rep answering has no more knowledge of next quarter's layoffs than anyone else, and every US state except Montana defaults to at-will employment.
- It's legally hedged into meaninglessness. The standard answers ("employed at will, cannot predict") convey nothing.
- It misses how people actually earn. A gig worker with three income streams has no employer to answer the question at all — but may have more resilient income than a single-employer W-2 employee.
- It's slow to collect. Employment verification forms take days or weeks of employer back-and-forth, and employer verification is slow even when it works.
A better signal: what income actually arrived
Instead of asking an employer to predict the future, review what has already happened. Bank-based income analysis can summarize deposits observed in successfully connected applicant-selected accounts: how much arrived, how often, and how consistent the available pattern appears. Historical deposits do not prove stability or continued income.
That's what Income Checker does. The applicant selects and connects an account through a secure, read-only Plaid flow, and the report estimates monthly income from observed deposit patterns. It can be used with several income types when a supported connection succeeds. The requester must determine applicable FCRA and other obligations with counsel. See how bank-based income reports work.
Frequently asked questions
What should I write for probability of continued employment?
If you're an employer: "Good," "Likely," or the legally safer "Employee is employed at will; we cannot predict future employment." If you're an applicant filling out your own paperwork, leave it for your employer — verifiers expect the answer to come from HR, not from you.
Is the employer required to answer?
No. Employment verification is voluntary in most cases, and many companies decline this specific question as a matter of policy. A "cannot provide" answer is normal and doesn't imply anything negative about the employee.
What if the applicant is self-employed?
There's no employer to ask, so the field doesn't apply. Use income evidence instead: tax returns, bank statements, or a bank-based income report. See our guide to income verification for self-employed tenants.
Does "probability of continued employment" appear on mortgage forms too?
Yes — most notably on Fannie Mae Form 1005 (Verification of Employment). Lenders treat it the same way experienced landlords do: as a soft signal, weighted far below documented income history.